11.07.14

If you were wondering why you haven’t heard anything about the deficit in awhile…..

Posted in Economics, Politics and Policy at 12:40 pm

It’s because it has fallen so far so fast, and the concern that it is likely falling too far just doesn’t make for a good fear-inducing headline.

The numbers are in for FY2014, which ended on Sept 30.

$483 billion. 2.9% of GDP.

That’s down from last years (2013) $679.5 billion and 4.1% of GDP.

It’s down from the peak 2009 figure of $1.4 trillion and 9.8% of GDP.

This is the lowest deficit in dollars since 2008 and the lowest as a % of GDP since 2007. As a % of GDP, it’s just slightly lower than the average of the past 30 years.

To put it in graphical terms:

Budget Deficit

The current CBO forecast for the current fiscal year (2015) is $469 billion and 2.6% of GDP. It’s worth noting however, that as late as this past August the CBO was forecasting a $683 billion deficit for 2014, so it’s likely their 2015 forecast will be revised a lot lower in the near future.

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