Debt Ceiling

Posted in Economics, Politics and Policy at 12:30 pm

A week ago I was convinced that there was a zero chance of the debt ceiling being breached, but over the past few days I’ve become convinced that there is a 90% chance of it happening.

The GOP is currently engaged in a full court press to make the point that breaching the debt ceiling is not the same thing as default. Putting aside the “payment prioritization” nonsense, which has no legal basis and which could not possibly be implemented in the Treasury’s systems, there are some valid reasons why October 17 may not be the date.

Keep in mind these dates:

October 22 – The date the CBO predicts the government will actually start missing payments.

October 24 – Treasury must roll over $24 billion in T-Bills. Technically the interest should be considered an expenditure (unlike the principal) but due to the zero coupon nature of these instruments I’m unclear on the actual govt accounting.

October 31 – Treasury must roll over $115 billion in Treasury Notes and Bonds and make an accompanying $6 billion interest payment.

November 1 – $55 billion in Medicare, Social Security, and military payments are due.

My prediction: The GOP is going to refuse to raise the debt ceiling on October 17 based on the calculation that they have at least until October 22 and possibly until October 31 before an actual default takes place. The morning of October 18 they’ll issue a statement to the effect of “see, we breached the debt ceiling and nothing happened”, followed shortly by a litany of demands that must be met before they agree to a debt ceiling increase, along with a sudden willingness to negotiate over those demands over the following few days.

The wildcard in this scenario, and the one that scares the crap out of me, is how the markets and the overall financial system will react in the days leading up to October 17 not to mention the days after it. This is why I’m still leaving open a 10% chance that a deal is reached at the last minute prior to the passing of October 17. A market panic could force them to abandon this plan at the eleventh hour.