07.07.15

#Grepocalypse

Posted in Economics, Financial Markets, General Musings, Politics and Policy at 8:49 am

Barring some miraculous breakthrough over the next 24-48 hours, it would seem that time is running out for a pre-July 20 agreement and there are really only two choices left:

1) Negotiate a short term deal – bridge financing to clear the IMF arrears and make the July 20 ECB payment, and another month or two to allow time for a real agreement to be negotiated. The problem here is that all parties are sick of kicking the can further and a short term deal only makes sense if there is consensus on the broad outlines of a program and it’s just a matter of more time being needed to finalize the details. This is clearly not the case here.

2) Begin planning for an orderly Grexit. No one wants to go down this path, but if the only choices are to start planning for an orderly Grexit now or have an unplanned, disorderly Grexit in two weeks……..

04.07.15

Iceland and Sovereign Money

Posted in Economics, Financial Markets, Politics and Policy at 5:00 pm

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11507810/Iceland-looks-at-ending-boom-and-bust-with-radical-money-plan.html

Surprised this isn’t getting more press. It will be an interesting experiment to say the least.

03.03.15

The misguided war against shareholder value management

Posted in Economics, Financial Markets, General Musings, Politics and Policy at 8:53 am

Lots of criticism against shareholder value management and stock-based compensation for executives has appeared in the press recently.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/03/02/the-fringe-economic-theory-that-might-get-traction-in-the-2016-campaign/

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/02/kill-stock-buyback-to-save-the-american-economy/385259/

There’s nothing wrong with shareholder value management, which simply states that when evaluating corporate investment decisions, a company’s management should A) ignore accounting fictions that have no bearing on cash flow and B) take into account their overall cost of capital, which includes both debt and equity.

Likewise, there’s nothing wrong with aligning management’s incentives with those of the owner’s of the firm via the issue of stock options or restricted shares.

As is often the case, the problem is with the execution of the above. The root cause is short-termism itself. Stock buybacks, one time dividends, and other financial engineering practices may drive the stock price higher in the short run but it does not lead to long run value creation, which was the whole point of shareholder value management. Likewise, the way we have structured stock grants to executives is not aligning their long term interests with shareholders, it’s incentivizing them to extract as much in the way of economic rents from the companies they run in as short a time as possible. The combination of these two factors is leading to disaster. The solution is to fix the implementation, not to scrap the fundamental ideas themselves.

11.07.14

If you were wondering why you haven’t heard anything about the deficit in awhile…..

Posted in Economics, Politics and Policy at 12:40 pm

It’s because it has fallen so far so fast, and the concern that it is likely falling too far just doesn’t make for a good fear-inducing headline.

The numbers are in for FY2014, which ended on Sept 30.

$483 billion. 2.9% of GDP.

That’s down from last years (2013) $679.5 billion and 4.1% of GDP.

It’s down from the peak 2009 figure of $1.4 trillion and 9.8% of GDP.

This is the lowest deficit in dollars since 2008 and the lowest as a % of GDP since 2007. As a % of GDP, it’s just slightly lower than the average of the past 30 years.

To put it in graphical terms:

Budget Deficit

The current CBO forecast for the current fiscal year (2015) is $469 billion and 2.6% of GDP. It’s worth noting however, that as late as this past August the CBO was forecasting a $683 billion deficit for 2014, so it’s likely their 2015 forecast will be revised a lot lower in the near future.

05.31.14

The acrimonious debate over inequality

Posted in Economics, General Musings, Politics and Policy at 10:37 am

A big part of the problem is that the terminology – “inequality” – is terrible.

Literally no one, including the most strident leftist, believes that everyone, from the brain surgeon to the floor sweeper to the unemployed person unwilling to work should receive the same exact income and possess the same exact wealth. A much better term would be “increasing concentration” rather than increasing inequality. Framing the problem as an increasing concentration of wealth and income would resonate much better with the American public and do a much better job of conveying the intended idea.

05.03.14

Piketty

Posted in Economics at 12:45 pm

It’s amazing how many bloggers on both the left and right (including actual economists) are butchering Piketty’s actual argument.

Piketty’s argument comes down to 3 pretty simple points.

1) β = s/g

β is the ratio of total capital in the economy to national income or GDP (K/Y). s is the savings rate in the economy. g is the growth rate of the economy.

It’s pretty easy to see how this works. Assume a capital stock of 500, national income of 100, economic growth of 2 percent, and a savings rate of 10 percent. 500/100 = 10/2. The following year, 510/102 = 10/2. Etc. Technically this is not an equation, but rather an equilibrium condition. If you plug in a different value for one of the variables you can get an inequality, but the result will be unstable and will tend back toward equality as you iterate through it several times.

2) α = r*β

α represents capital’s share of the national income. r is the rate of return on capital.

Using the example above, in the first year if the rate of return on capital was 4%, capital’s share of national income would be 0.04 * (500/100) or 20%. Labor’s share would then just be 1 – α or 80%.

3) Neither of the above propositions is particularly controversial or insightful. In fact, you could probably call them downright obvious. But then Piketty substitutes the first equation into the second to get:

α = r*(s/g)

Pretty simple, but what this is saying is that so long as the rate of return on capital exceeds the growth rate (r > g) then capital’s share of national income (α) will be increasing. Piketty then looks at some empirical economic data over the past couple hundred years which shows that over the long term the rate of return on capital has exceeded the rate of economic growth by a few percentage points per year (with the exception of the period 1910-1950). Thus increasing inequality is not some aberration, rather it’s a fundamental feature of capitalism.

More to come…………………..

10.08.13

Debt Ceiling

Posted in Economics, Politics and Policy at 12:30 pm

A week ago I was convinced that there was a zero chance of the debt ceiling being breached, but over the past few days I’ve become convinced that there is a 90% chance of it happening.

The GOP is currently engaged in a full court press to make the point that breaching the debt ceiling is not the same thing as default. Putting aside the “payment prioritization” nonsense, which has no legal basis and which could not possibly be implemented in the Treasury’s systems, there are some valid reasons why October 17 may not be the date.

Keep in mind these dates:

October 22 – The date the CBO predicts the government will actually start missing payments.

October 24 – Treasury must roll over $24 billion in T-Bills. Technically the interest should be considered an expenditure (unlike the principal) but due to the zero coupon nature of these instruments I’m unclear on the actual govt accounting.

October 31 – Treasury must roll over $115 billion in Treasury Notes and Bonds and make an accompanying $6 billion interest payment.

November 1 – $55 billion in Medicare, Social Security, and military payments are due.

My prediction: The GOP is going to refuse to raise the debt ceiling on October 17 based on the calculation that they have at least until October 22 and possibly until October 31 before an actual default takes place. The morning of October 18 they’ll issue a statement to the effect of “see, we breached the debt ceiling and nothing happened”, followed shortly by a litany of demands that must be met before they agree to a debt ceiling increase, along with a sudden willingness to negotiate over those demands over the following few days.

The wildcard in this scenario, and the one that scares the crap out of me, is how the markets and the overall financial system will react in the days leading up to October 17 not to mention the days after it. This is why I’m still leaving open a 10% chance that a deal is reached at the last minute prior to the passing of October 17. A market panic could force them to abandon this plan at the eleventh hour.

05.22.13

Quick thoughts on corporate tax reform

Posted in Politics and Policy at 9:09 am

Some quick thoughts, with the Apple testimony being all over the press right now (I’ll try to post more details later):

    – Keep the worldwide system
    - Keep the foreign tax credit
    - Do away with the deferral on foreign income
    - Lower the tax rate to a range that’s consistent with that of our major trading partners (e.g., 25-28%)
    - Crack down hard on the use of transfer pricing, IP royalties, and thin capitalization used to shift profits to tax havens

What NOT to do:

    - Move to a territorial system. This would dramatically increase the incentive to shift profits to low tax jurisdictions.
    - Eliminate the corporate income tax entirely. Unfortunately, the “give up” strategy seems to be gaining traction out there, even amongst people who should know better. You can’t eliminate the corporate income tax and instead tax individuals on the distributed income for very practical reasons. People would simply incorporate, shift their assets to the corporation, recast all of their wage/salary/investment income as corporate profit, and defer paying taxes on it essentially forever. In the meantime, they would live by borrowing money from their corporation (the principal would be untaxed and any “interest” they paid back to the company would itself be tax deductible). No matter how many laws you passed banning this sort of structure, people would find ways around it as the incentives are enormous.

10.13.12

Is it worth borrowing money from China to pay for that?

Posted in Economics, Politics and Policy at 9:04 am

The question in the title is becoming the new political meme for why we should cut spending on programs which are otherwise popular amongst voters.

How true is it, however, that we’re borrowing from China for our spending? Or rather, to what extent are we borrowing from China vs elsewhere?

As always, go to the source for the data:

September 2012 US Treasury Bulletin
http://www.fms.treas.gov/bulletin/b2012_3.pdf
See Table OFS-2 on page 41 for breakdown of Treasury holdings by type of investor.

Major Foreign Holders of Treasuries
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt

I used March 2012 data for all my calculations since it’s the most recent month for which ALL data points are available.

Here are the results:

Ownership of the National Debt
Federal Government__________ 41.05%
Foreign/International Investors__ 32.95%
Private Domestic Investors_____ 23.19%
State and Local Governments___ 2.80%

- The Federal Government holdings primarily consist of the Social Security fund, but also include federal worker and military pensions plus intra-governmental accounts.
- Foreign/International Investors includes both private investors/institutions and governments.
- Private domestic investors includes banks, insurance companies, mutual funds, pension funds, and individuals.

67.05% of the national debt is owned domestically. Right off the bat, the question should be – “is it worth borrowing money from OURSELVES to pay for that”.

China is the largest of our foreign creditors, accounting for 22.22% of the 32.95% of foreign holdings. Japan is the second largest, accounting for 21.03% of the 32.85%. Brazil is in the third spot at 5.05% of the 32.95%. After that, it drops precipitously, with a few dozen countries splitting the remaining 51.7% of the 32.95%.

So what is the total percentage of the national debt owned by China?

7.34%

By way of comparison, Japan holds 6.95% of the national debt.

Also interesting is the trend. From July 2011 through July 2012, China’s holdings of the national debt dropped from $1314.9B to $1149.6B while Japan’s increased from $885.2B to $1117.1.

It seems to me that the question “is it worth borrowing from China to pay for that” is highly misleading and disingenuous.

09.22.12

Has anyone even looked at Romney’s tax return?

Posted in Politics and Policy at 1:50 pm

All of this business about his effective tax rate going up and him voluntarily not deducting more charitable contributions was a distraction.

The preliminary return he filed in January:

Preliminary 2011 return
Adjusted gross income: $20,901,075
Total federal tax paid: $3,226,623

What he just released:

Final 2011 return
Adjusted gross income: $13,696,961
Total federal tax paid: $1,935,708

Wow. His taxable income mysteriously decreased by over 7 million dollars!!!!! So his taxes owed also decreased by $1.3 million. Most of the difference is in Taxable Interest and Short Term Capital Gains. Yet when you look at the relevant schedules there’s just a note saying See Statement X. Then you go to the back of the return and look up Statement X, all that is there is a list of his 4 or 5 trusts and an amount for each.

Romney has not released returns for any of his trusts. What he has released is 379 pages of pointers to those unreleased trusts. Zero visibility, zero transparency, little content.